Makana 360 Daily Insights:
📌 Global economy at risk of recession if the Iran war persists, IMF warns
The International Monetary Fund warned that if the US-Israel-Iran war continues and energy prices remain elevated, the global economy could move dangerously close to recession. In its worst-case scenario, global growth could fall below 2% in 2026, while inflation could climb to around 6%, potentially forcing central banks to raise interest rates. The IMF added that energy-importing countries and some Gulf economies would be among the hardest hit, while Russia could benefit relatively from higher oil prices.
📌 Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade risks another serious blow to the global economy
Donald Trump’s plan to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz carries major economic and political risks, even as it aims to choke off Iran’s oil revenues and deny Tehran leverage over a critical global shipping route. The move could drive oil prices higher, worsen inflation in the United States and globally, and increase the risk of military escalation and confrontation with major powers such as China. It could also strain relations with allies that depend heavily on Gulf energy supplies, underscoring Washington’s growing dilemma after stalled talks with Iran and a war that remains unresolved.
📌 Italy’s Meloni suspends defence cooperation deal with Israel
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced the suspension of the automatic renewal of Italy’s defence cooperation agreement with Israel, signaling a clear deterioration in relations between the two countries as Middle East tensions continue. The move follows growing Italian criticism of Israeli attacks on Lebanon and comes after warning shots were fired near Italian troops serving under a UN mandate. While the decision carries political weight, Israel downplayed its practical impact, saying the agreement is old and contains no significant security substance.
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